2024 Kelowna Real Estate Market Predictions : Insights from a Local Expert
As a realtor in Kelowna, I often get asked about my thoughts on our local real estate market. While I don't claim to have a crystal ball, my experience and understanding of the market allow me to offer some educated guesses. In this post, we'll delve into my predictions for the Kelowna real estate market in 2024, ranging from interest rates to housing prices.
Remember, these are speculative insights and should not be taken as financial advice.
1. Interest Rate Forecast
A significant aspect of the real estate market is interest rates, and 2024 might bring some relief. I predict the Bank of Canada may lower its overnight rate from 5% to about 4.5%. This reduction, likely to occur in the latter half of the year, will impact variable rate loans, including variable mortgage rates and lines of credit. However, it's important to note that fixed mortgage rates are influenced by the 5-year bond yield, not the Bank of Canada rate.
Continuing with interest rates, I foresee a drop in fixed 5-year interest rates to about 4.49% - 4.59% by the end of 2024. This prediction aligns with the recent decrease in bond yields, which typically influence fixed rates. For context, the last time bond yields hovered around 3%, fixed 5-year mortgage rates dropped to similar levels.
2. Kelowna Condo Market Outlook
Moving onto property types, a notable trend is expected in the condo market. I predict a continued decline in condo prices, possibly around 4-5% by the end of 2024. This decrease can be attributed to a fall in benchmark prices and the introduction of new short-term rental restrictions, which will likely increase the condo inventory in Kelowna as investors who are no longer able to rent their units out short term will instead opt to sell them.
3. Transaction Predictions
In terms of the number of real estate transactions, 2024 will see more activity. I anticipate more transactions compared to 2023, driven by factors like decreasing interest rates and Kelowna's persistent appeal. However, it's crucial to monitor the balance between demand and supply; an increase in demand without a corresponding rise in inventory could push prices upwards.
4. Single-Family Home Prices
Single-family homes in Kelowna are expected to see a positive price trajectory in 2024. I predict that prices will start increasing around mid-year and finish higher than they started. This trend suggests a rebound in the single-family home market, likely buoyed by decreased interest rates and increased demand.
Conclusion
My four key predictions for Kelowna's real estate market in 2024 are: a reduction in interest rates, a decrease in condo prices, an increase in transactions, and a rise in single-family home prices. While these are speculative insights, they are grounded in current market trends and economic indicators.
Interested in discussing your real estate goals or have questions about the Kelowna market?
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